Indus Treaty Suspension: A Slow Poison for Pakistan – let’s see how
International Affairs: India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has delivered a strategic jolt to Pakistan — not an explosive retaliation, but a slow, calculated squeeze through water diplomacy.
🇮🇳 India’s Silent Weapon – Water Diplomacy
In the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan anticipated a conventional military retaliation from India. But instead, India chose a different route — suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a move that has stunned analysts and is seen as a strategic long-term blow to Islamabad.
🏞️ Background of the Indus Waters Treaty
Brokered by the World Bank in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty divides six rivers between the two nations. Under this agreement, the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab were allocated to Pakistan, while the waters of Beas, Sutlej, and Ravi were assigned to India. India was restricted to non-consumptive use of the western rivers that flowed into Pakistan.
🚱 Major Economic Fallout for Pakistan
Suspension of the treaty threatens to cripple several vital sectors in Pakistan:
- 🇵🇰 Drinking water for 237 million citizens depends on these rivers.
- 🧑🌾 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural water comes via the IWT.
- 🌾 Irrigation for over 16 million hectares in Punjab province is at stake.
- ⚡ The Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River contributes around 8% of national electricity output.
- ⚡ The Tarbela Dam on the Indus accounts for nearly 16% of the country’s electricity.
💧 Critically Low Water Storage Capacity
Pakistan’s infrastructure for water storage is alarmingly insufficient:
- Combined capacity of Mangla and Tarbela dams is only 14.4 MAF (Million Acre-Feet).
- This covers barely 10% of the annual inflow.
- With limited storage, agriculture and power generation face serious disruption.
⚖️ Legal Backing for India’s Move
According to Pradeep Kumar Saxena, a former Indus Water Commissioner for India:
- As the upper riparian state, India holds greater discretion over water usage.
- Under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, substantial change in circumstances can justify suspension or termination of treaties.
- The current suspension could be a precursor to a formal withdrawal.
🏗️ Opportunity for Strategic Infrastructure
This suspension could pave the way for India to revisit its water infrastructure strategy:
- India may initiate new dam or weir constructions to boost water storage.
- Enhanced infrastructure could improve flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric production in India’s northern states.
⌛ Not Immediate, But Inevitable Impact
While the impact may not be immediate, the long-term effects on Pakistan could be severe:
- Water shortages, reduced storage, agricultural decline, and energy deficits are expected.
- Regulation of river flow by India could disrupt crop cycles in Pakistan, especially during critical growing seasons.
- Diplomatic recourse through the World Bank or the United Nations may become Pakistan’s only available option.